October 5, 2023
This report details Manitoba and Canada’s labour market from the perspective of supply and demand for labour, and the estimated labour shortages of labour between 2023 and 2027.
This report details Manitoba and Canada’s labour market from the perspective of supply and demand for labour, and the
estimated labour shortages of labour between 2023 and 2027.
- According to WEM LMI Forecastng, between 2023 and 2027, demand for labour is estimated at 116,365 new jobs in Manitoba. 80,896 is due to retiring workers, and 35,469 is due to new and expanding businesses.
- During the same time period, it is etimated that 7,485 jobs per year will be unfilled.
- This aligns closely with Statistics Canada. Table 14-10-0328-01 Job vacancies, proportion of job vacancies and average offered hourly wage by selected characteristics, quarterly, unadjusted for seasonality whereby in Q2 2023, there were a total of 8,470 jobs that were unfilled for 90 or more days.
- Over the past two decades, the Manitoba labour force paticipation rate (LFPR) has decreased from 69% to 66.7% indictive of less labour market activity. In fact, to maintain a 2002 LFPR of 69% in 2023, an additional 26,388 in would need to enter the labour force.
- Since 2016, Manitoba graduates approximately 13,500 individuals from post-secondary institutions, and 11,750 individuals from high school per year. There has been no substantial growth in these graduation figures since 2016.
- Given Manitoba’s interprovincial out-migration (more people leave Manitoba to other provinces than come to Manitoba from other provinces), it appears that (3) and (4) above, along with interprovincial outmigration are leading to a shortage of labour.
- It is estimated that approximately 6,500 international immigrants move to Manitoba each year to fill workforce jobs. This figure is lower than the previous forecast of 7,200 for unknown reasons, but presumably due to COVID-19 pandemic.
- WEM LMI national forecasting model relies on assumptions regarding interprovincial mobility. Depending on the degree in which individuals can move to find employment within their typical employment category, the Canadian labour shortage can be anywhere from balanced, to approximately 146,000 unfilled positions per year.